According to the announcer at last night’s game, the NFC has won the coin toss 10 consecutive times. He indicated the probability of this happening is extremely low. To calculate this probability, we need to assume that the coin is balanced (thus, there is a 50% chance of it landing on either side) and that there is no skill involved with tossing the coin or calling the toss that would change the 50% chance of it landing on any particular side.

The probability of any team winning the coin toss is 50%. The probability of an NFC team winning the coin toss two years in a row is .5 x .5 or .25. Thus, the chance that one division wins the coin toss two years in a row is only 25%. The probability that the NFC will win the coin toss ten years in a row is .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 or .00097. Thus, the chance that the NFC team would win 10 years in a row is very small.

The probability of the NFC winning the coin toss next year is .50, but the probability that one conference wins 11 years in a row is .00049.